In a decisive move to tackle the growing crisis of prison overcrowding, Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood has confirmed sweeping new measures that will see some prisoners released after just 28 days in custody. The announcement comes as the Ministry of Justice warns that correctional facilities in England and Wales could reach capacity by November, an unprecedented scenario which officials describe as “zero capacity”.
At the heart of the new strategy is a change to the prison recall system. Prisoners serving sentences of between one and four years—who are recalled to custody for breaching licence conditions, such as missing probation appointments or minor offences—will now be held for a fixed period of 28 days. Upon completion, they will be released automatically, rather than facing long spells behind bars or being subject to Parole Board review.
This policy is expected to temporarily free up approximately 1,400 prison spaces, effectively buying time for more fundamental sentencing reforms that are anticipated to be introduced next spring. It is part of a broader legislative push intended to keep pace with the rapidly increasing prison population before more permanent solutions can take effect.
Notably, these “fixed term” recalls will not apply to offenders convicted of serious or violent crimes, or to those considered a significant risk by authorities. Offenders in these categories will still be subject to standard recall, ensuring that public safety is not compromised by blanket releases.
Acknowledging the scale of the challenge, Mahmood also outlined plans for an ambitious expansion of the prison estate. Three new prisons are to be constructed on existing Ministry of Justice land, providing a projected 5,000 new places. Construction is scheduled to commence later this year near HMP Gartree in Leicestershire, as part of a £4.7 billion capital investment. Despite this, Mahmood openly admitted, “We cannot build our way out of this crisis,” underscoring the inevitability of broader reform.
Recent figures underline the urgency of the situation. The prison population in England and Wales currently stands at over 88,000—just a few hundred short of the all-time high reached in September 2023. Without intervention, the Ministry of Justice estimates that facilities could be overwhelmed within five months, putting enormous pressure on the criminal justice system and threatening the continuity of trials and arrests.
Reacting to the announcement, critics from both political and victims’ groups raised concerns about the balance between public safety and the need for reform. Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick accused the government of “making the problem worse”, suggesting that early release for recalled prisoners could undermine public confidence and act as a disincentive against re-offending. Baroness Newlove, the victims’ commissioner, echoed these worries, arguing that the changes could expose victims and the wider public to greater risk.
There has also been scrutiny from within the sector. Andrea Coomber KC, chief executive of the Howard League for Penal Reform, described the rapid growth of the recall population as unsustainable but called the 28-day rule a “logical step” in the circumstances. Looking ahead, she urged for comprehensive changes to sentencing—a view mirrored by campaigners who insist that only bold, systemic reform will offer a lasting solution.
Meanwhile, the Prison Officers Association voiced concern that simply building more prisons would not resolve underlying issues. Instead, union leaders have called for better investment in probation services, mental health resources, and robust community sentences as alternatives to incarceration.
The government’s emergency measures precede the findings of an independent sentencing review led by former Justice Secretary David Gauke. Many in the sector await these recommendations with interest, hopeful that they will offer a roadmap for a more sustainable, just, and effective penal system.
As England and Wales edge closer to running out of space within their prison walls, the debate about sentencing, rehabilitation, and public safety continues to intensify, highlighting the complexities and competing priorities at the heart of Britain’s justice system.