**Welfare Cuts May Triple Number of Welsh Households Affected, Says Think Tank**
Wales could see a dramatic surge in the number of households affected by welfare reductions, as new research warns that ongoing government changes to Universal Credit and disability benefits may have far-reaching implications. The findings, released by the Bevan Foundation, suggest that nearly four in five Welsh households could be impacted by the proposed reforms—a significant jump from the current estimate.
The research, conducted in partnership with Policy in Practice, comes in response to the UK Government’s plans announced earlier this year to overhaul disability payments and adjustments to Universal Credit. While ministers insist the reforms aim to encourage people into work, the report highlights escalating concerns about adverse consequences for some of Wales’ most vulnerable residents. The Bevan Foundation’s data indicates that the proportion of affected Welsh households could soar from 24.5% to a staggering 78.4% once changes are fully in place.
Welsh communities already contend with some of the highest rates of benefits dependency in Britain, and advocates warn these reforms risk plunging more households into poverty. For many, the planned changes to welfare could result in a severe drop in monthly income. The analysis found that some families may be facing setbacks of over £900 a month under the new arrangements—a figure that underscores the potential severity of hardship.
Dr Steffan Evans, Head of Policy (Poverty) at the Bevan Foundation, expressed deep concern at the findings. He said, “These new findings make for incredibly grim reading. It is clear, that without a rethink, UK Government’s proposed reforms to the benefits system will have a particularly severe impact on poverty in Wales, making life harder for thousands of disabled people.” Dr Evans further emphasised the crucial role the benefits system plays in reducing poverty levels, stating that while government efforts to support disabled people back into employment are welcome, paid work alone cannot be seen as the sole solution.
Deven Ghelani from Policy in Practice echoed these concerns, urging local authorities to prepare for a sharp increase in need. He remarked, “This research lays bare the sharp rise in hardship many disabled people in Wales could soon face. Local authorities need to prepare for the increase in poverty these reforms will trigger.” However, Ghelani suggested councils do have power to offer support at a local level, advocating for data-driven approaches to mitigation, targeted intervention, and resource allocation.
A particular point of frustration for campaigners in Wales remains the lack of clarity from Westminster over the potential full scale of the changes. Despite repeated requests, neither the Department for Work and Pensions nor the Treasury have released official figures estimating the number of people in Wales who will be affected. The Welsh Government has also been unable to provide its own forecasts, highlighting a data vacuum that is making local preparation and response more difficult.
Political tensions have risen as a result of the lack of transparency. During a recent visit following the Spring Statement, Chancellor Rachel Reeves acknowledged the requests for figures but indicated it was “not usual” to break down data by nation. This stance has sparked debate and concern among Welsh officials, especially given the higher dependence on welfare payments in the country.
Voices within the Welsh Government have described the changes as deeply concerning. Health minister Jeremy Miles indicated that such decisions would not have been made by the devolved administration, deeming the policy direction “wrong” for Welsh residents. His comments reflect growing anxiety about the knock-on effects for local services, from social care to education and health.
With no clear answers forthcoming from either London or Cardiff, opposition politicians, advocacy groups, and policy experts are warning that time is running out for the Welsh Government and local councils to prepare for the sweeping impact these reforms could have. Many are calling for urgent dialogue, transparency, and a robust safety net to ensure that families across Wales do not face a deepening cycle of deprivation as the reforms roll out in the coming months.
The developing situation remains under close scrutiny. As more details emerge and communities brace for change, the debate over the future of welfare in Wales and the balance between support and incentivising employment looks set to intensify further.