**DWP Reforms Predicted to Push Hundreds of Thousands into Poverty, Charity Warns**
Concerns are mounting over the government’s proposed welfare reforms, as new analysis suggests that dramatic cuts to disability and sickness benefits are likely to push even more people into poverty than previously indicated by official estimates. The Trussell Trust, a leading UK foodbank charity, has sounded the alarm about the projected impact, particularly on people living in disabled households.
According to a comprehensive report by the Trussell Trust, as many as 340,000 additional individuals in households with disabled members could be at risk of severe hardship and potentially forced to rely on food banks by the end of the decade. This estimate far exceeds the government’s own projection of 250,000 more people – including 50,000 children – falling into poverty following the proposed changes.
The government’s package of welfare changes focuses on tightening eligibility for Personal Independence Payment (PIP), the UK’s main disability benefit, and reducing the sickness-related component of Universal Credit (UC). Additional measures include delaying access to the health element of UC for those under 22, with an eye towards redirecting savings towards programmes intended to assist young people into employment or education.
Ministers argue the reforms are critical to reducing overall numbers claiming out-of-work sickness benefits, with an anticipated annual saving of around £5 billion by 2030. However, dozens of Labour MPs, alongside anti-poverty campaigners, have urged Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to halt and review the planned changes, arguing that they could have devastating consequences for some of the most vulnerable individuals and families.
The Trussell Trust’s calculations are based on research commissioned from public policy specialists WPI Economics. They use the Social Metrics Commission’s definition of “severe hardship” – meaning those who are living more than 25% below the poverty line. According to their findings, if the cuts go ahead as planned, approximately 440,000 people in disabled households would find themselves facing extreme difficulty, with many at risk of food insecurity by 2029/30.
A slated increase in the basic rate of Universal Credit from 2029 could help lift around 95,000 people out of severe hardship, the charity notes, but bringing forward this boost could mitigate the impact of cuts for many. Trussell Trust has called for the planned benefits uplift to be introduced by April 2026 instead of waiting until 2029.
Helen Barnard, Policy Director at the Trussell Trust, stresses that their modelling paints a bleaker picture because it captures the severity of hardship, not merely poverty on paper. “It’s not just about being under the poverty line, but about the depth of hardship endured. The lower your income, the greater the harm to your health and prospects; the inability to afford essentials like food only intensifies the damage done,” she explained.
Independent voices across the social policy sector have echoed these concerns. The Joseph Rowntree Foundation, a well-established anti-poverty group, stated: “This analysis shows that the planned cuts will likely drive even more people into deep poverty and hardship than the already stark scenario government figures suggest.”
A government spokesperson, responding to these concerns, said: “This Government is determined to change people’s lives for the better, helping them out of poverty and tackling the unacceptable rise in food bank dependence in recent years. We will never compromise on supporting those in need, and our reforms ensure that the social security system remains a safety net for those unable to work.”
With growing pressure from charities, opposition politicians, and campaigners, the government faces calls to reconsider its approach, particularly around support for disabled people and those facing long-term health challenges. Many are urging ministers to prioritise investment in employment and support services, rather than relying on cuts to welfare as a route to savings.
As parliament continues to debate these contentious proposals, the plight of those reliant on the benefits system remains in sharp focus. Questions remain about whether the changes will foster positive moves towards employment, or whether they will simply deepen hardship for thousands across the country.