Carmarthenshire Faces Challenging Demographics as Elderly Population Set to Soar
Carmarthenshire is bracing itself for a significant demographic shift, with stark figures indicating that the county’s residents aged 85 and over are projected to surge by an extraordinary 41% over the next decade. This anticipated increase, highlighted in a recent local authority report, brings both good news and profound challenges for the community, particularly when it comes to social care provision and financial planning.
At the heart of this trend is the reality that more people are living longer—a testament to improvements in healthcare and living standards. Yet, as the population grows older, the need for comprehensive and sustainable social care rises accordingly. According to the report, the council’s expenditure on social care for those aged over 75 is expected to escalate from approximately £94 million in 2024-25 to nearly £133 million by 2034-35.
This impending demographic transformation is not occurring in isolation. It coincides with a marginal, yet meaningful, reduction in the working-age population, predicted to fall by around 2% during the same period. This shift raises critical concerns over who will staff the growing care sector and how these extensive costs will be met amid a shrinking tax base.
Cllr Jane Tremlett, the cabinet member responsible for health and social services within Carmarthenshire County Council, recently addressed the implications of these changes in a committee meeting. She stressed the importance of robust, long-term strategies to manage these pressures, describing the situation as carrying “significant financial consequences” and underlining the necessity for forward-thinking solutions.
In response, the council is actively increasing residential care bed capacity and exploring plans for new nursing homes, including a large development near Cwmgwili, west of Ammanford, and another at the emerging Pentre Awel health and wellbeing complex in Llanelli. Efforts are also underway to identify a site for an additional care facility in the Carmarthen area.
While investment in infrastructure is recognised as essential, concerns persist regarding the adequacy of funding streams. For example, nursing bed funding from Hywel Dda University Health Board has failed to keep pace with demand or inflation. The council’s latest figures reveal that despite the frail elderly population rising by 30% and costs increasing by roughly 50% over the past decade, nursing bed contributions increased by just 2.4% during that time, placing the local authority under mounting financial strain.
Members of the scrutiny committee also raised worries about whether all vulnerable older people were receiving suitable care tailored to their needs. Jonathan Morgan, interim head of community services, noted that ongoing negotiations with the health board are focused on this very issue, particularly the vital task of accurately assessing care needs at the outset.
The council’s report does not only focus on the oldest residents. It estimates that spending on social care for younger adults, including those with learning disabilities—who are themselves enjoying longer lives than previous generations—will jump from just under £75 million to over £100 million in the next decade. Providing specialist support for adults living with complex needs, as well as for children in expensive care placements, contributes significantly to overall costs. Indeed, some placements for looked-after children were reported to cost between £4,000 and £13,000 per week, while the council’s ten most expensive adult care packages averaged £220,000 annually per person.
A major factor in rising expenditure is the increase in wages for frontline care staff. Council-employed carers in residential homes and those providing support for independent living now earn £12.15 per hour, up from £7.52 just seven years ago. While the council acknowledges the need to pay competitive wages, this reality has seen the average residential care home fee increase substantially, now standing at £860.98 per week, up from £516.09.
In light of these mounting pressures, the council has drawn up a comprehensive plan for the next five years. Key elements include expanding the in-house domiciliary care workforce, investing in diverse accommodation options for older residents, and promoting healthy ageing initiatives to help people stay independent for longer. Another focus is the development of the Shared Lives scheme, which enables people with additional needs—including dementia, autism, and learning disabilities—to live with carers in family-style settings. Council officials believe this model can not only reduce costs, but also offer an enhanced quality of life where appropriate.
As Carmarthenshire adapts to a new demographic reality, the scale of the challenge is clear. Meeting the social care needs of an ageing population while balancing the financial books will require innovation, investment, and collaboration between the council, NHS partners, and the wider community.