## NASA Updates Likelihood of Asteroid 2024 YR4 Striking the Moon
NASA has recently revised its predictions for Asteroid 2024 YR4, indicating an increased probability of the space rock impacting the Moon, rather than Earth, during its anticipated close approach in 2032. This follows new observational data that has enabled scientists to refine their understanding of the asteroid’s trajectory as it continues its journey around the Sun.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 first entered the spotlight when initial calculations suggested it might collide with Earth in late December 2032 – a scenario that understandably sparked concern worldwide. Fortunately, after further analysis, experts quickly determined that the likelihood of such an event was exceedingly small. Now, with the benefit of additional data captured by NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope, the scientific focus has shifted to the Moon, which faces a slightly increased but still remote chance of collision.
Prior to these latest observations, the probability of Asteroid 2024 YR4 striking the Moon stood at approximately 3.8%. However, thanks to improved measurements, NASA now estimates that the risk, while still minor, has increased to about 4.3%. Notably, if a lunar impact were to occur, NASA assures the public that it would have no discernible effect on the Moon’s orbit or the safety of Earth.
The pivotal new data was gathered in May by an international research team led by Dr Andy Rivkin of the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Maryland. By employing Webb’s advanced Near-Infrared Camera, they managed to glimpse the asteroid shortly before it slipped beyond the range of both ground-based and space-based telescopes. This singular observation proved invaluable, allowing NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California to refine calculations by nearly 20%, bringing scientists closer to forecasting the exact path 2024 YR4 will take on 22 December 2032.
It is not unusual for initial threat assessments to evolve as fresh information becomes available. Indeed, NASA stresses that as more observations are collected, the likelihood of impact by any near-Earth object can change – sometimes increasing, other times diminishing altogether. In the case of Asteroid 2024 YR4, ongoing monitoring and analysis remain vital, particularly as new opportunities for observation will not arise until 2028, when the asteroid completes another big swing through the inner Solar System.
For now, scientists must contend with the limits of current telescopic technology, as the asteroid is simply too distant to monitor directly. Researchers expect to resume detailed observations when the space rock makes another close approach in roughly four years’ time. This future window will be critical in further narrowing down the predicted course of YR4, giving planetary defence experts valuable time to prepare, even though the risk to either the Moon or Earth remains low.
The narrative around Asteroid 2024 YR4 highlights the delicate balance scientists must strike between transparency and reassurance. Public curiosity about potential asteroid impacts is both understandable and important, yet the relatively minuscule chances of a major collision must be weighed against frequent cinematic portrayals of global catastrophe.
At present, the consensus within NASA and the wider astronomical community is that there is no significant threat to humans or our planet from 2024 YR4. Should the asteroid ultimately collide with the Moon, the outcome would be scientifically intriguing, possibly leaving a new crater visible to telescopes and lunar probes, but would pose no danger to life or infrastructure.
The situation serves as a useful reminder of the ever-evolving nature of space science. As our ability to monitor the cosmos expands, so too does our capacity to anticipate and understand the behaviour of the countless objects that share our cosmic neighbourhood. While the prospect of an asteroid striking the Moon may capture imaginations, ongoing vigilance and research remain our best tools for ensuring planetary safety—now and for generations to come.