## Met Office Warns UK Could See 45°C Temperatures and Prolonged Heatwaves
The United Kingdom has a 50-50 likelihood of experiencing temperatures reaching a sweltering 40°C once again within the next dozen years, according to a stark warning from the Met Office. This news comes as forecasters caution that even higher temperatures—potentially peaking at 45°C or beyond—are now within the realm of possibility as the effects of climate change intensify. The prospect of extreme heat lasting an entire month is also no longer an improbable scenario for the country, prompting renewed concern over readiness and resilience.
The summer of 2022 marked a significant turning point, as the UK experienced its highest temperature on record. On July 19th, the mercury soared to 40.3°C in Coningsby, Lincolnshire, smashing the previous all-time high of 38.7°C recorded in Cambridge back in 2019. The record-breaking heat brought about significant challenges, with fire services in London, Leicestershire, and South Yorkshire issuing major incident alerts as wildfires ignited across residential areas, schools, churches, and farmland.
Alongside the immediate dangers posed by fires, the infrastructure across much of the UK buckled under the strain. Transport links, including railways and roads, faced substantial disruptions while widespread power outages underscored the vulnerability of essential services. Public health was also under acute threat, with excess deaths linked to the heatwave. During a particularly intense four-day period, more than 1,000 additional fatalities among older individuals were recorded. Over the course of the summer, England witnessed more than 3,000 deaths attributed to heat-related causes.
Fresh analysis from the Met Office has shown the risk of such extreme temperatures is rising sharply. Utilising global climate models, researchers have determined that the odds of experiencing a 40°C day in modern-day Britain have increased more than twentyfold since the 1960s. Notably, within just the past two decades, the likelihood has nearly tripled—further evidence of the accelerating impact of global warming.
A study published in the scientific publication “Weather Journal” delved deeper into these patterns, concluding that continuous temperature increases mean even more severe heat events are to be expected in the coming years. Dr Gillian Kay, a senior scientist at the Met Office and principal author of the study, explained, “Our research indicates that the chance of exceeding 40°C is now more than twenty times greater than it was in the mid-twentieth century. The likelihood continues to rise as the climate warms, and we estimate there’s an even chance of seeing the 40°C threshold breached again within twelve years.” Dr Kay also highlighted that temperatures as high as 46.6°C are scientifically plausible under current conditions.
The research further investigates the possibility of prolonged heatwaves. Modelling shows that up to two-thirds of summer days in south-east England could surpass the 28°C mark—considered the heatwave threshold in this region—with stretches of continuous heatwave weather potentially lasting longer than a month. The likelihood of multiple days exceeding 35°C has also risen, with some projections not ruling out 12 consecutive days at or above this figure.
Historically, the intense summer of 1976 has often been cited as a benchmark for UK heatwaves, featuring more than two weeks above 28°C. However, as Dr Nick Dunstone, Met Office science fellow and co-author, pointed out, “Our findings suggest that such persistent heat could now continue for a month or even longer, based on present climate trajectories.”
These stark projections signal an urgent need for comprehensive preparation and adaptive planning across all sectors. Experts stress the importance of safeguarding public health, upgrading transport and energy infrastructure, and developing strategies to protect key environmental assets from the rising frequency and intensity of extreme heat.
In the light of these findings, authorities and communities across the United Kingdom are being urged to take immediate steps to ensure resilience in the face of an increasingly volatile climate. The conversation around adaptation and mitigation is expected to intensify as the nation confronts the looming challenges posed by record-breaking temperatures and extended heatwaves.