**Reform UK Surges Ahead in Welsh Polls, Labour Faces Unexpected Struggle**
A new political survey has shed light on a dramatic shift in voter sentiment ahead of Wales’ Senedd elections, casting a shadow over Labour’s prospects while elevating Reform UK into poll position. The poll, carried out by More in Common for Sky News between June 18 and July 3, included responses from 883 adults across Wales and reveals a landscape where the traditional dominance of Labour is seriously under threat.
The headline-grabbing finding is that Reform UK currently leads voting intention for the Senedd with 28%, a result that would have been unthinkable only a few years ago. Hot on their heels is Plaid Cymru at 26%, with Labour trailing in third at 23%. The Conservatives, traditionally Labour’s biggest rivals in the Senedd, are projected to fall significantly, securing just 10% of the vote.
These figures mark a significant departure from previous expectations. Although Labour has risen by 5% compared to an earlier estimate of 18%, the party still finds itself overtaken by both Reform UK and Plaid Cymru. This is now the third consecutive poll to forecast Labour falling behind its competitors, reinforcing a trend that is sending shockwaves through Welsh politics.
Diving deeper into the data, it appears that Labour’s support is seriously eroding, even among its 2024 General Election backers. Less than half (48%) of Labour’s previous voters would continue to support the party in a Senedd ballot if it were held today. The most significant shift sees 15% of Labour’s vote leaking to Plaid Cymru, and another 11% drifting towards Reform UK. Further compounding Labour’s woes, 13% of 2024 Labour voters remain undecided about their future political allegiance.
The loss of ground for Labour is echoed in assessments for the Westminster vote too. A separate poll conducted for the UK Parliament indicated an even more dramatic tilt: Reform UK on 33%, Labour at 20%, and Plaid Cymru at 16%. The Conservatives, having faced a near wipe-out in the last general election, are only managing to maintain a 12% share.
Party leadership approval ratings also reflect the turmoil. No major Welsh political leader currently enjoys positive approval, but the numbers provide intriguing insight. Reform UK’s high-profile figure, Nigel Farage, and Plaid Cymru’s Rhun ap Iorwerth both register a net approval of -7. Conservative group leader Darren Millar fares somewhat better at -13, especially when compared to his Westminster counterpart Kemi Badenoch, with a rating of -27. First Minister Eluned Morgan stands at -18, but even this is substantially better than UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s deeply negative -44 rating.
Keir Starmer, now seen as the least popular leader in Wales, is struggling to convince the public with only 17% judging him to be doing a good job, while 61% express dissatisfaction—a steep hill for Labour to climb if it wishes to regain support.
Eluned Morgan, the newly-appointed First Minister of Wales, has acknowledged the seriousness of the shift, telling Sky News that Labour is treating the rise of Reform UK with utmost gravity. She admitted there was considerable work to be done to win back voters, but affirmed her refusal to compete with Reform UK on its own ground, stating her party will focus on uniting communities rather than echoing Reform’s rhetoric. When questioned on the possibility of joining forces with Reform UK in a coalition, Morgan was emphatic: “I wouldn’t touch Reform with a barge pole.”
The latest polling numbers have intensified the debate about the future direction of Welsh politics. With traditional allegiances being challenged and the party landscape more fragmented than ever, the coming months are set to be a period of intense campaign activity, as all parties vie for the attention and support of a restless electorate.
As the political temperature rises in Wales, the impact of these polls will be watched with keen interest, not only for their implications in Cardiff Bay, but also for what they signal about shifting voter priorities across the UK.