**School Budget Crisis Deepens in Carmarthenshire as Pupil Numbers Drop and Staff Increase**
Schools across Carmarthenshire are facing mounting financial challenges as falling pupil enrolment and rising staff numbers place unprecedented pressure on budgets. Councillors and education officials have highlighted the urgent need for reforms, with some suggesting that decisive intervention is needed to avoid long-term financial instability.
According to Aneirin Thomas, Carmarthenshire Council’s head of education and inclusion services, local schools have experienced a dramatic shift over the past five years. The county now has 1,600 fewer pupils but employs 300 extra teachers and teaching assistants compared to 2020. This trend, compounded by continuing declines in birth rates, has left many schools with substantial budget deficits as government funding is primarily tied to pupil numbers.
Presenting to the council’s governance and audit committee, Mr Thomas reported that 44% of schools in the county are currently operating in deficit. He underscored that rationalising the number of schools may be the only way to relieve the financial strain. “Expediting the rationalisation of our school footprint is a necessary step,” he said, while clarifying that modelling work does not automatically signal imminent closures or target specific schools.
A recent committee report indicated that the overall financial outlook had improved slightly, yet schools face a collective overspend of £11 million anticipated for 2025-26. When existing deficits are included, the total projected shortfall could exceed £16 million by the end of the next academic year. The issue, officials noted, is not unique to Carmarthenshire. Throughout Wales, nearly 400 schools are in deficit, with large concentrations in Bridgend, the Vale of Glamorgan, and Cardiff.
Committee discussions reflected a sense of urgency. Councillor Elwyn Williams described overspending in education as “the biggest single threat” to the council’s financial future and suggested a tougher approach, likening the action needed to “coming down like a tonne of bricks” on over-budget schools. He also challenged the narrative that budget cuts were impossible in an era of expanding staff numbers, especially in the wake of the pandemic.
There was, however, acknowledgment that resolving these financial difficulties will be a gradual process. Lay committee member David MacGregor compared the situation to trying to turn an oil tanker—fundamental reform will require collective effort and patience across the council. Meanwhile, schools have been asked to submit recovery plans, though none of the institutions forecasted to end 2024-25 in deficit responded to an initial request.
Some secondary schools are trying to make efficiencies, but geographic and demographic factors present unique hurdles. For example, at Ysgol Emlyn in Newcastle Emlyn, declining enrolment and its rural location make it difficult to balance budgets, despite strong efforts to control staffing and costs. Officials warn that without swift action, the school may soon face insurmountable financial problems. Elsewhere, Ysgol Bro Dinefwr is committed to deficit reduction but currently lacks the resources to deliver bilingual education, forcing difficult decisions about future provisions.
Several councillors feel that more needs to be done at both the local and national levels. Cllr Alex Evans called on the Welsh Government to provide more targeted support, arguing that comparing Carmarthenshire’s situation with larger cities is inappropriate given its many smaller, rural schools. Parents’ preference for smaller settings, especially for children requiring additional support, adds further complexity—closing these schools risks an uptick in home education, which would in turn reduce government funding further.
Amid this turbulent landscape, the council is currently conducting a county-wide review of all primary schools to assess their long-term sustainability. Financial training is being rolled out to headteachers and governors alike, as staff costs now consume approximately 80% of typical school budgets. These efforts mirror wider national concerns about sustainability and standards across Wales.
The Welsh Government has announced an additional £262.5 million in funding for the education sector next year, on top of a 4.5% increase to local authority budgets this year. A spokesperson acknowledged ongoing budget pressures but emphasised continued collaboration with local councils to support learners and maintain essential services.
Education remains a deeply emotive issue within the community, with many stakeholders acknowledging that meaningful change may require both sensitive handling and firm, swift decision-making in the months ahead. As Carmarthenshire forges ahead with its review, families and staff across the region await clarity on the future shape of local education provision.