Met Office Increases Probability of Heatwave as UK Braces for Another ‘Very Warm’ Spell
The United Kingdom may not have seen the last of its summer heatwaves, according to the latest guidance from the Met Office, which suggests that further warm – potentially even hot – conditions could develop as August unfolds. The country has already endured three notable heatwaves this year, and meteorologists now warn that another bout of high temperatures could be imminent.
In recent weeks, Britons across Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Wales experienced their hottest day of the year on 12 July, with thermometers spiking above 30°C in some areas. However, these sweltering conditions were swiftly replaced by torrential rain and dramatic thunderstorms. This rapid shift in weather brought widespread weather warnings, complicating the start of the summer holidays for families across the country.
Speaking in the aftermath of these drastic changes, Met Office meteorologist Aiden McGivern explained that the UK’s weather patterns are undergoing another transition. In an update broadcast on 22 July, McGivern detailed the movement of a “cold pool” into central Europe, with significantly warmer air beginning to approach from the south-west. “We’ve got higher temperatures moving in and a ridge of high pressure building, set to result in yet another marked change as we head towards the weekend,” he stated. He forecasted drier conditions returning by the week’s end, with some regions in the east and southeast potentially seeing highs of around 27°C.
The broader long-range forecast from the Met Office has also been updated, with new models indicating a distinct possibility of “very warm or hot spells” developing later in August. The service anticipates temperatures rising above the seasonal norm as the month progresses, particularly if high pressure asserts itself over the UK for an extended period.
In its outlook covering 7 to 21 August, the Met Office described a continuing shift from a changeable westerly pattern towards one dominated by high pressure emanating from the southwest. Early August is expected to bring an alternation between periods of rain and drier, clearer weather. “As we move further into August, there is a growing chance of more dry and settled conditions,” a Met Office spokesperson advised. Temperatures are expected to remain at or above average levels, with the south and east especially susceptible to any heat that materialises should high pressure persist.
While meteorologists are keen to stress that heatwaves cannot be predicted more than a few days ahead with precision, the trend within their latest three-month projections is notable. According to those forecasts, the likelihood of summer 2025 being warmer than the typical seasonal average has doubled.
Examining the immediate forecast for late July into early August, the Met Office expects an initial spell dominated by westerly breezes, which traditionally ushers in spells of rain interspersed with drier patches. Parts of the north and west may endure bouts of heavier rainfall, whilst regions in the east and south could escape with marginally brighter and more settled weather. Breezy conditions are likely to be most pronounced in northern areas, while overall temperatures continue to hover slightly above what would usually be expected at this point in the summer.
The evolving forecast highlights the variable nature of the British climate, especially with global patterns of heatwaves and precipitation growing more unpredictable. As families across the UK try to make the most of school holidays, the mixed meteorological picture means plans may need to adapt at short notice.
For the time being, it’s a case of keeping an eye on the latest alerts from the Met Office, which continues to provide updates as conditions develop. The prospect of yet more sunshine – and potentially disruptive heat – hangs in the balance as Britain enters the second half of summer.
With climate change increasingly influencing seasonal patterns, these shifts towards hotter, drier spells interspersed with intense rainfall events are expected to become more common in future years. Researchers and forecasters alike stress the importance for Britons to remain alert to changing advice and to take appropriate precautions during periods of extreme weather.