**Labour Facing Potential Historic Loss in Wales as Latest Poll Shows Decline**
For more than a century, the Labour Party has enjoyed unrivalled dominance in Welsh politics, routinely securing the majority vote in every major election since 1922. However, a new political survey suggests that this longstanding record may be under serious threat as public confidence in both the UK and Welsh Labour leadership appears to be waning. With a new Senedd election scheduled for this time next year, the latest figures indicate Labour could witness a dramatic fall from grace, putting its political future in Wales in doubt.
The poll, undertaken by YouGov for the Barn Cymru project, asked 1,265 Welsh adults between 23 and 30 April for their voting intentions. The results paint a stark picture: Labour’s projected share of the vote sits at just 18%, leaving it trailing behind both Plaid Cymru, leading with 30%, and Reform UK with 25%. Should these findings be mirrored in an actual election, Plaid Cymru would become the largest party in the Senedd, expected to claim approximately 35 seats. Reform UK is forecast to capture 30 seats, with Labour relegated to just 19.
Meanwhile, the Conservative Party, which currently serves as the main opposition, would see its representation drop even further—to only nine seats—falling behind Labour, with the Liberal Democrats predicted to secure three. These projections signal a significant realignment within Welsh politics and point towards a more fractured Senedd, raising questions about future coalitions and the feasibility of a stable government.
Beyond simple voting intention, the poll delved deeper into voters’ perceptions of the key political leaders. Sir Keir Starmer, leader of UK Labour and Prime Minister, suffered from lacklustre public confidence, with just 27% of respondents approving of his performance. A notable 62% described his work as poor—an increase from 58% last November. Such numbers highlight the mounting unease about the UK Labour leadership among Welsh voters.
Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan also fared badly in the survey. Only 23% of those polled felt she was effective in her role, whilst 43% rated her performance negatively. The figure reflects a marginal rise in disapproval since last autumn. Her primary competitor, Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth, garnered moderately stronger approval, with 29% rating him positively—an improvement since the last poll. For the Conservative leader Darren Millar, the numbers proved even starker: only 10% viewed him favourably, against 37% thinking otherwise.
Nigel Farage, helming Reform UK, enjoyed the highest approval among the major party leaders at 33%, but his negatives have grown, with 45% expressing dissatisfaction—an increase from 36% late last year. This suggests shifting attitudes towards Reform UK, possibly as more voters scrutinise the party in the run-up to the next election.
The survey also addressed general perceptions of both UK and Welsh government performance. Only 15% believed the UK Government was performing well, while a striking 60% said it was performing badly—up significantly from five months prior. The Welsh Government’s performance inspired slightly more confidence, but still less than a fifth approved (19%), while 48% considered it to be falling short.
In a sign of growing independence within Welsh Labour, respondents were asked whether the party should draw closer to, or further from, its UK counterpart. A majority favoured a move away from alignment with UK Labour, indicating disquiet over central party policies and a desire for more distinctively Welsh decision-making. This comes in the wake of a major speech by Eluned Morgan, in which she suggested she would not hesitate to challenge her party colleagues in London should their choices run counter to Welsh interests.
On the subject of turnout, voting intent remains uncertain for a substantial slice of the population. Among those asked, 2% declined to answer, 13% stated they would not participate in the vote, and 15% were undecided on how they would cast their ballot. These uncertainties suggest that the parties still have much to play for in the months leading up to the Senedd election.
The Barn Cymru poll is a collaborative project involving ITV Cymru Wales, Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, and polling agency YouGov. Its findings, if reflected at the ballot box, would mark one of the most significant shifts in Welsh politics in living memory, ending Labour’s historic dominance and ushering in a new era for governance in Wales.