## DWP Identifies Groups at Risk of Losing PIP Under Planned Changes
The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) has released further details on the groups of people most likely to lose their Personal Independence Payment (PIP) in the wake of sweeping welfare reform measures set to begin from 2026. The government’s analysis, now in the public domain, paints a worrying picture for many current and future claimants, particularly those living with ubiquitous health conditions such as back pain and arthritis.
According to documents published by the DWP, it is projected that around 370,000 existing PIP recipients may lose their entitlement once the new rules are enforced. Furthermore, an estimated 430,000 prospective applicants will not qualify for the disability benefit in the future. This potential change is expected to result in an average annual loss of £4,500 for each affected claimant, raising concerns among disability advocates and opposition MPs alike.
The reforms are part of a broader government effort to introduce what it describes as “sustainable” welfare provision, citing the rapid increase in PIP awards. As Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall pointed out, more than 1,000 new PIP claims are currently being granted daily across Great Britain, contributing to a total of 3.7 million claimants as of January this year. These numbers, ministers argue, highlight the urgency of recalibrating the benefits system to target support more narrowly.
The official analysis, revealed in response to a parliamentary question from Liberal Democrat MP Victoria Collins, focused on how claimants with the 18 most commonly reported disabling conditions fared in PIP assessments. The findings indicate a wide disparity in how different illnesses are likely to be impacted by the upcoming changes. For example, among people claiming for back pain—the single largest group—79% received less than four points across daily living activities, the threshold below which entitlement may be lost under the new criteria. Similarly high percentages were observed for conditions such as chronic pain syndromes and regional musculoskeletal diseases.
Other notable figures include 62% of those with cardiovascular diseases and more than half of claimants with respiratory illnesses or multiple sclerosis failing to reach the four-point mark. In contrast, people with learning disabilities and autistic spectrum disorders had far lower proportions falling beneath this threshold, at 3% and 6% respectively.
The DWP’s breakdown is based on each claimant’s primary condition listed in the PIP computer system at the time of their assessment, despite many individuals experiencing multiple health issues. Secondary or coexisting conditions are not considered in the projected impact figures, which may understate the true breadth of potential eligibility loss.
Personal Independence Payment is intended as a lifeline for those who have difficulty completing essential everyday activities—such as preparing meals, managing medication, and communicating—due to their physical or mental health. The assessment process currently awards points for each daily living activity, with a score of 8–11 points qualifying for the standard rate and 12 or more securing enhanced payments. To be eligible, claimants must demonstrate substantial difficulties in performing these tasks safely, repeatedly, and in a reasonable time frame, with or without assistive aids.
Under the proposed reforms, the DWP also aims to increase the number of face-to-face assessments, moving away from the mostly remote system established during the pandemic. However, there is no planned freeze on payment rates, which will continue to rise in line with inflation, and the mobility element of PIP will remain unchanged.
The government’s proposals are currently subject to public consultation and require parliamentary approval before implementation. Disability rights groups have urged those affected to participate in the consultation, warning that such major changes could leave hundreds of thousands without crucial support for independent living.
While ministers argue the changes are essential to the system’s long-term viability, critics describe the potential scale of the cuts as deeply troubling. As the government considers how best to support disabled people while balancing public spending, the debate over the future of PIP and who it serves is set to intensify in the months ahead.