### Reform UK Surge: What’s Driving Welsh Voters Away from Labour?
The political landscape in Wales is experiencing notable shifts, with the rise of Reform UK capturing the attention of communities that have, for decades, been considered Labour strongholds. Wales is witnessing an evolving narrative as voters from towns like Llanelli and villages in Bridgend county borough express disillusionment with mainstream parties and opt for an alternative in Reform UK.
In the town of Llanelli, Neil Thomas, 62, epitomises this movement. A lifelong Labour supporter, Mr. Thomas now says he’s finished with the party after losing trust over a series of policy reversals. Despite previously voting for Labour in the 2024 UK General Election, disappointment over benefit changes and uncertainty about support for pensioners swayed his allegiance. “Never again,” he asserts, discussing his disenchantment with Labour’s recent approach to the winter fuel allowance—a policy area that has seen multiple reversals and left many feeling adrift.
Mr. Thomas’s experience with personal independence payments, which were initially withdrawn after an assessment before eventually being reinstated on appeal, added to his frustration. However, it is the forthright style of Nigel Farage, Reform UK’s leader, that seems to have truly influenced his change in loyalties. “He speaks his mind,” says Mr. Thomas. “He would be a good Prime Minister. The one we’ve got now, we don’t know what he’s doing.”
The broader context reveals that Reform UK’s popularity is more than a local anomaly. The party, languishing at the bottom of national polls just two years ago, started gathering momentum in late 2023. Labour’s dominance began to falter, and Reform surged ahead of the Greens and Liberal Democrats, steadily chipping away at the Conservative vote. While Labour clinched the 2024 general election decisively, Reform made substantial gains at the local level in England and is now polling strongly nationwide.
Recent by-elections in Wales have further evidenced this trend. Michelle Beer’s recent win in the Lliedi ward resulted in Reform UK’s first Carmarthenshire council seat, breaking a tradition of Labour dominance in the area. During the last general election, Labour MP Nia Griffith retained her seat, but with Reform’s Gareth Beer coming a close second—an outcome few could have predicted a year earlier.
Voters cite a range of frustrations behind their shift. Stella Bartlett, a 76-year-old resident who switched her support from Labour in the general election to Reform UK in the local by-election, puts it down to inconsistencies in Labour’s policies and decisions such as the back-and-forth on winter fuel payments. Stella also highlights the impact of tax changes affecting low-income workers like her granddaughter. Her remarks suggest a growing appeal for politicians perceived as relatable and rooted in the community: “I met the Reform candidate, and she was lovely. I just happen to like Farage—he’s down to earth, like a normal person.”
Economic anxieties loom large in these communities, with cost-of-living pressures and stagnant investment in infrastructure compounds frustrations. Craig Morgan, a Llanelli resident who moved from supporting the Conservatives to Reform UK, points out that promised improvements in housing and revitalisation of the town have stalled. He also credits Farage’s directness, though he is cautious about the party’s broader immigration stance.
Reform UK’s appeal extends beyond Llanelli. In the Pyle, Kenfig Hill and Cefn Cribwr ward, another traditionally Labour area, the election of Owain Clatworthy as county councillor came with a narrow margin but sent a strong message. Here too, local dissatisfaction rings loud, from criticism of unkempt public spaces to concern over national issues such as the future of the NHS and the closure of the Port Talbot steelworks, which has long been a mainstay of employment in the region.
Candid conversations with residents capture a feeling of being left behind by the political establishment. “The problem with a lot of politicians is that they promise you everything, then they don’t do anything at all,” says one Kenfig Hill resident, expressing frustrations many communities feel locally and nationally. Others stress the urgent need for politicians to listen and act on community needs, regardless of party colour.
Reflecting on his election, Owain Clatworthy, at just 20 years old, puts the focus squarely on listening to and delivering for local people. “I ran a campaign based on people because many are fed up of being ignored and want to see change,” he said. His victory underscores the demand for renewed representation and a departure from politics as usual.
As Wales prepares for the 2026 Senedd elections, all political parties face the challenge of responding to a disaffected electorate. Issues like economic stability, public services, and the authenticity of political leaders will take centre stage as Reform UK and its competitors vie for the trust—and votes—of communities seeking tangible change. The future direction of Wales’ political landscape hangs in the balance, shaped as much by national momentum as by the daily realities in towns like Llanelli and villages bordering Bridgend.