In a stunning by-election twist in Caerphilly, former Labour MP Wayne David suggests Labour supporters “lent” their votes to Plaid Cymru to block Reform UK from gaining a foothold. Labour’s vote share took a nosedive, dropping nearly 35% from the previous Senedd election, a hit that hasn’t been seen in over a century. Meanwhile, Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle clinched the seat, leaving Labour trailing in third.
David, who knows the constituency inside and out, noted a shift during the mid-point of the campaign. Initially, support for Labour and Plaid was neck-and-neck, but a Wales-wide opinion poll painted Plaid as the best bet against Reform, nudging Labour voters to support Plaid as a tactical move. He emphasised the prevailing sentiment: keeping Reform at bay was paramount. As one Labour supporter simply put it, “The important thing in this by-election is to send Reform packing.”
In the aftermath, First Minister Eluned Morgan acknowledged the setback, stressing the need for serious reflection. But there’s still hope. Morgan assured voters that their message was heard, vowing to listen and act.
Plaid Cymru celebrated the outcome, viewing it as a rejection not just of Reform’s divisive politics but also of a Labour Party seen as out of touch. A Plaid spokesperson highlighted that voters in Caerphilly chose a party rooted in community, committed to Welsh values, and poised to deliver real change.
As Reform credits its campaign for the strong showing, claiming readiness for the upcoming Senedd elections, all eyes are set on Wales’s political landscape, questioning whether this marks a turning point. With promises of progressive change, it remains to be seen how this political drama will unfold leading up to May 2026.