Interactive Tool Reveals Welsh Regions at Highest Risk of Impact from Government’s Welfare Policy Adjustments

A newly published map has highlighted the Welsh areas most at risk from changes to welfare payments, particularly the Personal Independence Payment (PIP), as government discussions around benefit reforms continue. The data, compiled from the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP), reveals significant regional disparities in PIP claims, indicating pockets of high vulnerability should any reforms go ahead.
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PIP, introduced in 2013 to replace Disability Living Allowance for working-age people, offers vital financial assistance for those living with long-term ill health or disabilities. The benefit is structured across two main components, daily living and mobility, with weekly payments ranging from £73.90 up to £187.45 at the highest levels. These funds provide a crucial lifeline to thousands who face additional costs related to their disabilities.

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Controversy has surrounded recent attempts by the UK government to make it harder for individuals to qualify for PIP. The changes, proposed through tougher criteria within its points-based assessment system, were initially justified as a “moral imperative” by the Prime Minister, aiming to encourage more people into work and reduce the £5bn annual welfare bill. However, significant opposition from MPs, including rebels within Labour’s own ranks, prompted last-minute concessions. The resulting legislation passed but with substantial alterations, and a commitment to delay any new rules until after a full review.

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The urgency of these debates is underscored by the map’s findings: Wales emerges as one of the most affected UK regions, with 11.7% of working-age residents claiming PIP—significantly above the cross-border average of 8.3%. Four Welsh constituencies are now among the top ten for claimant rates across England and Wales, according to DWP figures as of April 2025.

Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney stand out with 17.4% of their working-age population receiving PIP, more than double the average. Aberafan Maesteg follows close behind on 16.9%, and Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare (15.9%), as well as Rhondda and Ogmore (15.7%), also feature prominently. Only Liverpool Walton and Easington in England have higher proportions, at 18.6% and 17.8% respectively.

The reasons for PIP claims are striking. In Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney, more than a third (34.4%) of claimants cite psychiatric disorders, while another 24.5% point to general musculoskeletal conditions, and 14.4% indicate regional musculoskeletal disease. Smaller but still significant groups report neurological (10%) and respiratory issues (4.4%) as primary causes for their claims.

These high claimant rates coincide with challenging local economic conditions. The Office for National Statistics reports that the employment rate in Blaenau Gwent dropped to 69.4% in the year ending December 2023, down from 73.8% the previous year. By comparison, the wider Welsh employment rate rose slightly to 74.1% during the same period.

Unemployment in Wales as a whole also crept upwards, reaching 4.1% by the end of 2023 compared with 2.9% in 2022. Meanwhile, the proportion of people claiming unemployment-related benefits remained stable at 4.3%. Yet, the most concerning trend may be the rise in economic inactivity—those neither in work nor actively seeking employment. In Blaenau Gwent, this group represented 26.4% of people aged 16-64 in 2023, up from 24.7% the prior year. This is notably higher than the Welsh average of 23% and the national picture across Great Britain.

Economic inactivity can be attributed to a variety of reasons, including ill health, retirement, family care commitments, and disabilities—many of which also drive PIP claims. The overlap of high benefit dependency and lower employment opportunities puts areas like Blaenau Gwent and other Welsh constituencies in a particularly precarious position.

As the government continues to review the future of disability benefits, the figures underline the disproportionate impact that any tightening of eligibility criteria could have on specific Welsh communities. The current pause in reforms may provide a temporary reprieve, but for many, uncertainty remains about how future changes may affect vital sources of support.