Keir Starmer has described the Caerphilly by-election result as “deeply disappointing” for Labour, a party that once dominated this south Wales stronghold. Labour fell to third place, marking a significant shift from their victory in 2021. Starmer acknowledges it’s time for Labour to “reflect and regroup” on their approach in Wales, especially with the Senedd elections just six months away.
Plaid Cymru capitalised on this momentum, leading the race with over 3,000 more votes than Reform UK, despite fierce competition. Meanwhile, notable absence from Starmer during the campaign raised eyebrows while Reform’s Nigel Farage was out showing support for his candidate.
As polling expert Sir John Curtice notes, Labour’s situation in Wales appears precarious, with the potential for losing power in the upcoming election—a first since devolution in 1999. With the Caerphilly by-election now settled, all eyes turn to May’s Senedd elections. Can Labour turn the tide, or is Wales on the brink of a significant political shift? Stay tuned!