**Shock Poll Rocks Welsh Politics, Heralding Seismic Changes Ahead of 2026 Election**
In the run-up to the 2026 Senedd elections, a newly released political poll has sent shockwaves through the Welsh political landscape, signalling the most dramatic shift in party fortunes since the advent of devolution. The findings, described by First Minister Eluned Morgan as a “serious wake up call”, show significant gains for Plaid Cymru and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK at the expense of both Labour and the Conservatives.
The survey, carried out by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University as part of the Barn Cymru study, paints a picture of growing voter disillusionment with the major parties. With just one year until Wales heads to the polls, the data suggests Labour is on track to experience its poorest performance since the formation of the Senedd, putting its years of dominance at serious risk.
According to the poll, Plaid Cymru emerges as front-runner, with a projected 30% of the constituency vote. Reform UK follows closely with 25%, while Labour, once the bedrock of Welsh politics, has slumped to a precarious 18%. Should these numbers be reflected in the actual election, Plaid Cymru could claim around 35 seats, Reform UK 30, and Labour would be reduced to just 19 seats. The Conservatives, who currently serve as the official opposition, risk falling to fourth place with nine seats, with the Liberal Democrats expected to hold three.
The repercussions of these results could upend the political order in Wales. Dr Jac Larner, the Cardiff University academic responsible for the seat projections, highlighted that no fewer than ten seats fall within a tight margin of error, raising the possibility that even minor swings in voter preferences could produce markedly different outcomes. Nevertheless, the trend points unmistakably toward a fragmented, four-party contest in Welsh politics, eroding the stable two-party system which has dominated for decades.
An underlying factor in this shift appears to be widespread dissatisfaction with both the Welsh and the UK governments. The poll found that Labour’s decline comes not just as a result of voters moving right to Reform UK, but also left to Plaid Cymru, which has long offered a progressive Welsh alternative. Dr Larner noted, “Both Labour and Conservative parties are experiencing substantial erosion of support, but in different directions. In Wales, Plaid Cymru is seeing some of its strongest polling figures in history, as Labour’s traditionally loyal base shifts allegiance.”
For the Conservatives, the polling figures present a dismal picture, amounting to one of their weakest showings in the past twenty years. Conversely, Reform UK, invigorated under Nigel Farage’s leadership, now appears poised to overtake the Tories as the main right-of-centre voice in the Senedd, capitalising on a platform tailored to disenchanted voters seeking change.
First Minister Morgan candidly acknowledged the poll’s gravity, stating: “That is a wake up call if ever we’ve seen one. It’s a serious challenge for us, and for UK Labour. We must reconsider how we deliver on the issues that matter most to people in Wales.” Her comments suggest a recognition that Labour will need to not only review its policy offerings but also rebuild trust with an electorate that is increasingly open to alternatives.
The poll, comprising responses from 1,265 adults across Wales between 23-30 April, also examined likely voting intentions in a Westminster general election. Here too, the established order faces disruption: Plaid Cymru and Reform UK polled joint top, each with 24%, while Labour trailed at 20%. This stands in stark contrast to Labour’s dominance in the July 2024 general election, when it secured 27 of 32 Welsh seats.
A Reform UK spokesperson was quick to capitalise on the momentum, commenting: “These latest figures confirm what we’ve been hearing on the ground – people are ready for real change. Reform UK is now firmly established in Wales as a credible force, offering an alternative to parties that have failed for too long.”
As Wales prepares for the 2026 Senedd election, this poll underscores a shifting political mood and points towards one of the most unpredictable and fiercely contested elections in modern Welsh history. The next year will be instrumental in determining how established parties respond to the fast-changing wishes of the Welsh electorate and whether Plaid Cymru and Reform UK can sustain or even build upon their newfound support. While polls are merely snapshots of opinion, this one delivers an unambiguous message: Welsh politics is undergoing a historic realignment.