The final poll before the Senedd Election on May 7th reveals a surprising lead for Plaid Cymru! According to the latest YouGov results, Plaid Cymru, under Rhun ap Iorwerth, has taken a notable lead with 33% of the vote share, while Reform UK is trailing with 29%. This shift could result in Plaid Cymru securing 43 seats and Reform UK taking 34.
In a twist, Labour seems to be struggling, with Eluned Morgan projected to lose her seat, as they fall to third place with just 12% support. Meanwhile, the Welsh Conservatives rise slightly to 9%, placing them in fourth position, and the Green Party drops to 8%, potentially earning them two seats for the first time ever! The Lib Dems may see Jane Dodds returning to the Senedd as well.
This election sees a massive change with six politicians to be elected per new constituency using proportional representation. According to Cardiff University’s Dr Jac Larner, “Plaid appears to have opened a small gap in the final days, but it’s a closely fought race.”
Stay tuned for Thursday’s polling, as even slight changes in voting could dramatically impact the seat allocation and result in a progressive majority government. It’s a nail-biter to the end—will Plaid’s lead hold? How will Thursday’s votes shape future governance in Wales? We’ll soon find out! 🗳️